'I must accept your first answer...'

I came across a fascinating example of counter-intuitive reasoning this morning after bumping into another father from the Cambridge parents' network as we travelled into London.

My friend has recently taken over the chair in Operations Research at the London School of Economics and since it's over 20 years since Operational Research featured in my computing degree, I referred to the internet for a slight refresher.

Operational Research emerged during the Second World War, which some would call a golden period for innovation. British scientist Patrick Blackett was one of several developing methods to improve decision making. The Wikipedia entry includes this anecdotal fragment which demonstrates Blackett's genuine ability to "think outside the box":

"…Blackett's team analysed a report of a survey carried out by RAF Bomber Command. For the survey, Bomber Command inspected all bombers returning from bombing raids over Germany over a particular period. All damage inflicted by German air defenses was noted and the recommendation was given that armour be added in the most heavily damaged areas. Their suggestion to remove some of the crew so that an aircraft loss would result in fewer personnel loss was rejected by RAF command.

Blackett's team instead made the surprising and counter-intuitive recommendation that the armour be placed in the areas which were completely untouched by damage in the bombers which returned. They reasoned that the survey was biased, since it only included aircraft that returned to Britain. The untouched areas of returning aircraft were probably vital areas, which, if hit, would result in the loss of the aircraft."

The answer isn't always staring you in the face.